# What Really Lowers Your Score? Modeling the Truth Behind Strokes Gained

## 🏌️ What Really Lowers Your Score?

I’ve always been curious about what *really* lowers golf scores.

Not just what feels important — but what the data actually says.

So I started building a model.  
And I’m already learning things that surprised me.

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## 📊 Not All Strokes Are Equal

Strokes Gained is a powerful stat.  
But at its core, it assumes one thing:

> A stroke gained is a stroke gained, no matter where you earn it.

That might be true in theory.  
But what if *how* you gain or lose strokes matters more than we think?

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## 🧠 You've Heard the Debate:

> *“Drive for show, putt for dough.”*  
> *“The driver is the most important club in the bag.”*

Depending on who you ask, the most valuable club in your bag changes.

I wanted to know what the **data** says — not just the tour chatter.

So I built a model and ran it on **7 full seasons of PGA Tour data, from 2015 to 2022**, using round-level strokes gained stats and computed scoring differentials.

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## 📈 Early Results from the PGA Tour

Here’s what I found:

* ✅ **Approach play** is the most consistent driver of lower scores
    
* ✅ **Putting** is right behind — and sometimes just as important
    
* ✅ **Off-the-tee skill** helps, but contributes less directly
    
* ✅ **Short game** plays a supporting role, not a starring one
    

That’s the big picture.  
But when you zoom in on individual players, the story gets more interesting.

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## 🔍 Everyone Scores Differently

I ran individual models on dozens of PGA players — and the variation was striking.

* 🧨 Some players like **Erik van Rooyen** and **Daniel Chopra** rely heavily on Off-the-Tee or Short Game performance to lower scores
    
* 🎯 Others like **Victor Perez** or **Mark Wilson** live and die by the putter
    
* 🛠 Players like **Rory McIlroy** and **Sean O’Hair** show balanced, all-around scoring profiles
    

> Every scorer has a different recipe.  
> And the model shows how they get it done.

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## 🗣 How You Can Help

Now I want to go further.

I'm starting to collect **amateur and VR golf data** to see how these patterns shift at lower skill levels.

* Are drivers more important when you’re missing more greens?
    
* Does putting get messier as you move away from elite ranks?
    
* Do different skill levels *need different practice priorities*?
    

If you're a golfer — real-world or VR — and want to help, I’d love your input.

Even just a few rounds of data — Score, Differential, and basic strokes gained stats — can help expand the model.

> **Want to contribute?**  
> A simple upload form is coming soon. Until then, feel free to reach out.

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## 🧠 What’s Coming Next

In future posts, I’ll be sharing:

* How PGA Tour players actually score — by skill, not by myth
    
* What patterns emerge at the amateur level
    
* What this means for your practice, your stats, and your game
    

This is just the beginning.  
Let’s find out what really matters — and maybe help a few golfers score lower along the way.

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📝 *Want to follow along or contribute your own rounds? You can find me at* [*shankproof.dev*](https://shankproof.dev) *or drop a comment below.*  
👊